Probability & Statistics
Probability measures how likely something is; statistics makes sense of data once it's collected. Together they're the everyday superpower for reasoning under uncertainty — and the single best defense against being fooled by numbers.
- Probability: Measuring Uncertainty Probability puts a number from 0 to 1 on how likely something is. For equally likely outcomes it's favorable over total; independent events multiply, mutually exclusive ones add, and expected value tells you the long-run average.
- Reading Data: Statistics That Don't Lie Mean, median, and mode summarize the center of data; range and standard deviation describe its spread; and the distribution describes its shape. Knowing when the mean betrays you is half the skill.
- How Statistics Mislead You The same statistics that explain the world are used to distort it: correlation sold as causation, biased samples, ignored base rates, cherry-picked results, and charts engineered to deceive. Here's how to catch each one.